CONSTRUCTION 2025 in POLAND AUTODESK RAPORT

The report is from 2019 and does not refer to the current situation of social quarantine, caused by COVID - 19. A look from 2019 eye on construction in Poland in the perspective of 2025 shows which elements are and will be key for the construction industry in the coming years. Due to the large changes that are taking place in today's global economy, the following summary of the report has been confronted with the downward trends in individual of the investment industries to which the report refers. In terms of opportunities and obstacles.

The recorded increases in production in recent years in the construction industry have not translated adequately to the profits of the entire sector. The report pointed to an increase in material prices and an increase in wages as key factors in inhibiting the path to increasing investment profitability. Additional elements are administrative and legal restrictions, which, despite the actions taken, amendments to laws, have not changed much in this respect. A large unit cost indicated in the report is the increase in electricity prices in Poland. Opportunity for development, before the pandemic era, was: infrastructure, warehouses and industry, hotels and offices, and the housing sector. Currently, in 2020 we can verify the presented assumptions of the report. A fall in wage prices in the construction sector seems very likely due to the widening unemployment in the world. Material prices should not fall significantly in price due to production stoppages in some parts of the world, thus reducing access to resources while reducing internal demand for building materials. Changes in regulations and simplification of administrative procedures during the plague are processes that will occur and have already begun. This is a chance to digitize the entire public sector. However, it should be remembered that the implementation of administrative procedures will not be a fast process. As demonstrated by the implementation of digital solutions under EU directives, these are lengthy processes. As for the growth in the hotel and office facilities sector, we already know that it stopped in 2020. Infrastructure facilities are likely to be completed, but a reduction of investment in this area should be expected to 2025 due to the involvement of public funds to fight unemployment and social quarantine. Warehouse and industrial construction looks very promising in 2020 and even more promising than in 2019. The transport market can forecast the growth trend in this sector, which is not slowed down even in the hottest period of social isolation. The housing market remains a great mystery. On the one hand, the reduction in investment seems certain due to the collapse of the short-term rental market, on the other hand, however, the housing deficit in Poland and rising inflation may trigger the escape of the financial sector in real estate. It is too early to say any real estate market tendency to rise or fall.

Growth potential was determined as: reduction of energy demand in both production and use. The authors of the report see a reduction in costs in the analysis of contractors' data, the introduction of digital documentation to the construction site, the expansion of communication (understood by the lack of data loss throughout the entire cycle: design - execution - use) enabling optimization of works, supplies, storage and construction of a square meter. It is no surprise that BIM has been indicated as an IT solution for all of the above needs. Ready to be introduced today. As a huge field for optimization. BIM can solve the problems of the full spectrum of construction (quote from page 25 of the AutoDesk report given in the source):

• valuation
• timetable
• collision identifications
• supply logistics
• implementation
• facility operation

Additional optimizations include: return of prefabrication - though skeptical, standardization of processes and exchange of information. It can be concluded that a pandemic will not change these trends and may accelerate them effectively. New technologies as entering or waiting to enter the construction sector were specified (citation from pp. 27-29 of the AutoDesk report given in the source):

• 3D printing
• Interent of Things
• Cloud
• drones
• prefabrication
• VR - virtual reality
• (...)
• IPD (Integrated Project Delivery)

The future of 2025 was defined as an approximation of the cooperation of the entire sector. In the scope of work on each of the stages (design - construction - use) by representatives of: designers, contractors, managers. It should be noted that the actual work of all industries brings optimization. The report indicates the growing involvement of the IT world in the construction industry in the field of data analysis, planning and investment preparation. In 2019, it was identified as the biggest barriers to an approach to innovative construction: the lack of vocational education corresponding to the needs of the construction market and a mentality closed to innovation. You can add: high costs of introducing each of the innovations to the market. The need for certification and technical approvals of all building materials and construction equipment. Therefore, the report until 2025 mainly focuses on soft solutions that are not subject to such restrictive and extensive administrative procedures as possible to be implemented in the perspective of 5 - 6 years. The authors of the report should be admitted that the emergency situation with a pandemic does not exclude the report's indications as to the paths of introducing innovations to the construction sector. Interesting observations as to the necessary paths for the government and investors are indicated by expert comments (p. 40). Introduction of the PPP model (public-private partnership) to the economy, use of BIM at least at stage 7D, education in new technologies in the executive and management sectors, and familiarizing construction engineers (in the full range of specialization) with the language and capabilities of the IT industry.

The main innovations in 2025 resulting from the report (possible to meet despite covid-19) are:

• wide teams of specialists (architects, engineers, programmers, economists, cost estimators and others)
• work on data (adding data and using already added)
• understanding of IT solutions by the construction sector
• BIM

Sources:

https://pixabay.com/pl/

https://www.autodesk.pl/campaigns/aec/wizja-liderow-2025